Download the graphic presentation: ENG_31.01.24 INSCOP Survey -News.ro Part 3 Presidential elections
Part III: Voting intention for presidential elections. Two lists of candidates. Chapter 1
Methodology:
- The INSCOP Research opinion poll was commissioned by News.ro
- The data was collected between 16 -24 January 2024
- Research method: sociological survey through questionnaire, CATI (telephone interviews)
- The sample, which comprised 1,100 people, is representative according to significant socio-demographic categories (sex, age, occupation) for the adult population of Romania (aged 18 and over 18).
- The maximum error of the data is ± 3%, at a confidence level of 95%.
Remus Stefureac, director INSCOP Research: “The voting intention in the presidential elections for the candidate version tested in September and November 2023 and repeated in January 2024 remains relatively constant, the changes being negligible. On the other hand, the introduction of a new candidate in the list, namely Victor Ponta (Pro Romania), changes the figures. The former prime minister, who maintains a high level of notoriety, seems to get the most votes from PSD candidates, Marcel Ciolacu and AUR, George Simon. Also, Mircea Geoană loses two points, the other candidates registering minimal changes in their voting intention. The presidential elections will be the main competition that will influence the 2024 electoral year, which is why the nomination of candidates could play an essential role in calibrating the performance of the parties in the European, local, and parliamentary elections”
Estimated participation in presidential elections
On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means ‘surely I will not vote’, and 10 means ‘surely I will vote’, 9.8% of Romanians chose 1, 1% chose 2, 1.2% chose 3, 1.1% chose 4, 7.1% chose 5, 1.3% chose 6, 4.7% chose 7. 5% indicate 8, 3.9% choose 9 and 64.4% indicate 10. 0.5% do not know or do not answer this question.
1st Scenario – presidential elections
If presidential elections were held next Sunday, among the 80.2% of Romanians who have a clear voting option, 24.6% would choose Mircea Geoană (independent candidate), 15.1% would give their vote to Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) and 14.8% would put the stamp on Diana Şoşoacă (SOS). The ranking is followed by Nicolae Ciucă (PNL) with 10.8%, Victor Ponta (Pro Romania) with 10.7% and George Simion (AUR) with 10.4%. The ranking of voting options is completed by Cătălin Drulă (from the United Right Alliance) with 4.7%, Dacian Cioloş (REPER) with 4.1% and Hunor Kelemen (UDMR) with 3%. 1.7% of Romanians would choose another candidate.
2nd Scenario – presidential elections. Comparison with September and November 2023
In the scenario of candidates tested including in September and November 2023, if next Sunday they were called to vote for the new president of Romania, out of the 78.3% of Romanians who have a voting option, 26.5% would choose Mircea Geoana, independent candidate, (25.3% in September and 26.2% in November 2023), 18.9% would put their stamp on Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) (19.5% in September and 20.8% in November 2023) and 14% on Diana Şoşoacă (SOS Romania) (10.1% in September and 14.4% in November 2023). In the ranking follows George Simion (AUR) with 13.3% (18.7% in September and 14% in November 2023), Nicolae Ciucă (PNL) with 11.4% (11.2% in September and 12.1% in November 2023), Cătălin Drula (from the United Right Alliance) with 5.9% (5.6% in September and 4.2% in November 2023), Dacian Cioloş (REPER) with 5.1% (4.1 % in September and 3.9% in November 2023) and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) with 3.6% (2.7% in September and 2.4% in November 2023). 1.3% of Romanians would choose another candidate (2.8% in September and 1.9% in November 2023).
Download the graphic presentation: ENG_31.01.24 INSCOP Survey -News.ro Part 3 Presidential elections