Download the graphic presentation: 12.2023 INSCOP Survey – News.ro Voting intentions for parliamentary & presidential elections
Part II, III & IV: Voting intentions for parliamentary & presidential elections. Trust and name recognition of public figures
Methodology:
- The INSCOP Research opinion poll was commissioned by News.ro
- The data was collected between 20 – 27 November 2023
- Research method: sociological survey through questionnaire, CATI (telephone interviews)
- The sample, which comprised 1,100 people, is representative according to significant socio-demographic categories (sex, age, occupation) for the adult population of Romania (aged 18 and over 18).
- The maximum error of the data is ± 2.95 %, at a confidence level of 95%.
Romania’s direction
25.1% of Romanians believe that Romania is heading in the right direction, while 66.7% are pessimistic about the country’s future. 8.2% of the total sample do not know or do not answer this question.
Parliamentary elections
Estimated participation in parliamentary elections
On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means ‘surely I will not vote’, and 10 means ‘surely I will vote’, 20.5% of Romanians chose 1, 2.5% chose 2, 2% chose 3, 0.9% chose 4, 7.4% chose 5, 1.9% chose 6, 4.6% chose 7. 6.7% indicated 8, 4.5% – 9, and 48% – 10. 1.1% represents the percentage of non-responses.
Voting intentions for parliamentary elections
Of those who expressed their preference for a party from the list, regardless of whether they declare that they will vote for sure or not (65.2% of the total sample), 30.2% would vote with PSD, 20.1% with PNL, and 19.5% with AUR. 11.9% of Romanians would vote for USR, while SOS would get 5.2% of the voting options. 4.9% of those who expressed a voting option would vote for UDMR, and 2% for Pro Romania. 1.9% express their voting option for the Green Party, 1.3% for PMP, 0.7% for PUSL, 0.6% for The Force of the Right and 0.3% for REPER. 1.3% of respondents express their preference for another party.
TRUST and NAME RECOGNITION of Public Figures
Remus Stefureac – INSCOP Research Director:“The trust ranking is dominated by holders of important positions on the international bodies: NATO Deputy Secretary-General Mircea Geoană, and European Chief Prosecutor Laura Codruța Kovesi. The podium is completed by the mayor of Cluj, Emil Boc. The data draws attention by two elements. The first is that the top three ranked names are not active players in national politics but excel in their fields of activity. The second is the level of trust above expectations in Diana Șoșoacă, indicating that significant segments of the population resonate with ultra-radical messages, a true litmus test of a state of profound social dissatisfaction.
Name recognition
Klaus Iohannis is the politician with the highest recognition among the tested names, with 100% of respondents declaring that they have heard of him. The head of state is followed by Gabriela Firea with a recognition of 94.6%, Diana Șoșoacă with 93.8%, Emil Boc with 93.7%, Mircea Geoană with 92.2%, and Marcel Ciolacu with 92%. 86.5% of those interviewed say they have heard of former DNA chief Laura Codruța Kovesi, 83.8% of Liberal leader Nicolae Ciucă, and 81.4% of AUR leader George Simion. USR leader Cătălin Drulă has a recognition of 41.6%, while Ilie Bolojan has 34.3%
Trust
Mircea Geoană leads the trust ranking with 36.3% much and very much trust. The Deputy Secretary General of NATO is followed by Laura Codruța Kovesi with 34.3% much and very much trust and Emil Boc with 32.4%. The ranking is continued by Marcel Ciolacu with a trust level of 25.3%, Diana Șoșoacă with 22.7%, Gabriela Firea with 21.4% and George Simion with 20.7%. 19.1% of those interviewed trust much and very much Nicolae Ciucă, and 16.2% Klaus Iohannis. Ilie Bolojan has a trust level of 12.9%, and Cătălin Drula 6.7%.
Presidential elections
Remus Stefureac – INSCOP Research Director:“INSCOP Research has tested two voting scenarios for the presidential elections: one that includes only the leaders of the main political parties as potential candidates and another that includes Mircea Geoană as an independent candidate alongside political leaders. As we approach the moment of the presidential elections and the number of potential candidates will increase, the list of names tested in these sociological surveys will change accordingly. Compared to September, we observe slight increases in the voting intentions for Mircea Geoană, Marcel Ciolacu, and Nicolae Ciucă, but also a higher increase in the case of Diana Șoșoacă – a trend that correlates with a decrease in the voting intentions for George Simion. Essentially, as with the vote for political parties, we observe that Diana Șoșoacă and George Simion compete for the same segment of voters, meaning that an increase in one automatically results in a decrease in the voting intentions for the other.”
Estimated participation in presidential elections
On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means ‘surely I will not vote’, and 10 means ‘surely I will vote’, 13% of Romanians chose 1, 1.7% chose 2, 1.6% chose 3, 1.2% chose 4, 6.2% chose 5, 2.1% chose 6, 2.9% chose 7. 7% indicated 8, 6% – 9 and 57.6% – 10. 0.7% represents the share of non-responses.
Voting intentions for presidential elections (1st Scenario)
In the first scenario, which repeats the measurement from September, the list included the following potential candidates: Mircea Geoană (independent), Marcel Ciolacu (PSD), Diana Șoșoacă (SOS Romania), George Simion (AUR), Nicolae Ciucă (PNL), Cătălin Drulă (USR), Dacian Ciolos (REPER), and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR).
Of those who expressed a preference for a candidate on the list, regardless of whether they declare that they will vote for sure or not (83.1% of the total sample), 26.2% would vote for Mircea Geoană (independent) (compared to 25.3% in September 2023), 20.8% for Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) (19.5% in September 2023), 14.4% for Diana Șoșoacă (SOS) (10.1% in September 2023), and 14% for George Simion (AUR) (18.7% in September 2023). 12.1% of voters would opt for Nicolae Ciucă (11.2% in September 2023), and 4.2% for Cătălin Drulă (USR) (5.6% in September 2023). Dacian Cioloș (REPER) would be chosen by 3.9% of voters ( 4.1% in September 2023), while Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) by 2.4% (2.7% in September 2023). 1.9% say they would vote for another candidate (2.8% in September 2023).
Voting intentions for presidential elections (2nd Scenario)
In the second scenario, the list included the following potential candidates: Marcel Ciolacu (PSD), Diana Șoșoacă (SOS Romania), George Simion (AUR), Nicolae Ciucă (PNL), Cătălin Drulă (USR), Dacian Ciolos (REPER), and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR).
Of those who expressed their preference for a candidate from the list, regardless of whether they declare that they will vote for sure or not (76.4% of the total sample), 27.4% would vote for Marcel Ciolacu (PSD), 19.1% for Diana Soșoacă (SOS) and 18% for George Simion (AUR). 14.1% of voters would opt for Nicolae Ciucă, and 7.1% for Cătălin Drula (USR). Dacian Cioloș (REPER) would be elected by 6.7% of voters, and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) by 2.7%. 4.9% say they would vote for another candidate.
Download the graphic presentation: 12.2023 INSCOP Survey – News.ro Voting intentions for parliamentary & presidential elections
