Methodology:

• The INSCOP Research opinion poll was commissioned by News.ro
• The data was collected between 16 -24 January 2024
• Research method: sociological survey through questionnaire, CATI (telephone interviews)
• The sample, which comprised 1,100 people, is representative according to significant socio-demographic categories (sex, age, occupation) for the adult population of Romania (aged 18 and over 18).
• The maximum error of the data is ± 2.95%, at a confidence level of 95%.

Remus Stefureac – director INSCOP Research: “Trust in public figures is one of the most rigorous forms of credibility assessment. In this ranking, we notice that only two political leaders pass the threshold of 30% very much and much trust. Both Mircea Geoană and Emil Boc return after heavy periods of political collapse, both going through consistent processes of reinvention, far from the national political scene, one performing on the international stage, and the other in the local administration. This confirms the fact that most Romanians are very demanding towards the current leaders of political parties, who are at the forefront of the public debate, preferring instead personalities less active in national politics, but with results in their fields of activity.”

Trust in public figures

Mircea Geoană leads the trust ranking with 34%, much and very much trust. The Deputy Secretary General of NATO is followed by Emil Boc with 32.4% much and very much trust, respectively Victor Ponta with 24.1%. The ranking is continued by Marcel Ciolacu with a trust capital of 20.5%, Gabriela Firea with 19.5%, Cristian Diaconescu with 19.1%, Diana Şoşoacă with 18.6% and George Simion with 15.4%. 12% of those interviewed have much and very much trust in Nicolae Ciucă, and 5.8% in Cătălin Drula.

Name recognition

Klaus Iohannis is the personality with the highest recognition among the names tested, 98.9% of respondents declaring that they have heard of him. The head of state is followed by: Diana Şoşoacă with a notoriety of 96.7%, Victor Ponta with 95.7%, Marcel Ciolacu with 93.9%, Gabriela Firea with 91.7% and Emil Boc with 90.7%. 89.6% of those interviewed say they have heard of Mircea Geoană, 84.4% that they have heard of liberal leader Nicolae Ciucă and 82.3% of AUR leader George Simion. Cristian Diaconescu benefits from a notoriety of 68.2%, USR leader Cătălin Drula from 43.6%, and Remus Pricopie 23.5%.

Download the graphic presentation: 6.02.24 INSCOP Survey-News.ro Trust and Name Recognition

Part III: Voting intention for presidential elections. Two lists of candidates. Chapter 1

Methodology:

• The INSCOP Research opinion poll was commissioned by News.ro
• The data was collected between 16 -24 January 2024
• Research method: sociological survey through questionnaire, CATI (telephone interviews)
• The sample, which comprised 1,100 people, is representative according to significant socio-demographic categories (sex, age, occupation) for the adult population of Romania (aged 18 and over 18).
• The maximum error of the data is ± 3%, at a confidence level of 95%.

Remus Stefureac, director INSCOP Research: “The voting intention in the presidential elections for the candidate version tested in September and November 2023 and repeated in January 2024 remains relatively constant, the changes being negligible. On the other hand, the introduction of a new candidate in the list, namely Victor Ponta (Pro Romania), changes the figures. The former prime minister, who maintains a high level of notoriety, seems to get the most votes from PSD candidates, Marcel Ciolacu and AUR, George Simon. Also, Mircea Geoană loses two points, the other candidates registering minimal changes in their voting intention. The presidential elections will be the main competition that will influence the 2024 electoral year, which is why the nomination of candidates could play an essential role in calibrating the performance of the parties in the European, local, and parliamentary elections”

Estimated participation in presidential elections

On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means ‘surely I will not vote’, and 10 means ‘surely I will vote’, 9.8% of Romanians chose 1, 1% chose 2, 1.2% chose 3, 1.1% chose 4, 7.1% chose 5, 1.3% chose 6, 4.7% chose 7. 5% indicate 8, 3.9% choose 9 and 64.4% indicate 10. 0.5% do not know or do not answer this question.

1st Scenario – presidential elections

If presidential elections were held next Sunday, among the 80.2% of Romanians who have a clear voting option, 24.6% would choose Mircea Geoană (independent candidate), 15.1% would give their vote to Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) and 14.8% would put the stamp on Diana Şoşoacă (SOS). The ranking is followed by Nicolae Ciucă (PNL) with 10.8%, Victor Ponta (Pro Romania) with 10.7% and George Simion (AUR) with 10.4%. The ranking of voting options is completed by Cătălin Drulă (from the United Right Alliance) with 4.7%, Dacian Cioloş (REPER) with 4.1% and Hunor Kelemen (UDMR) with 3%. 1.7% of Romanians would choose another candidate.

2nd Scenario – presidential elections.  Comparison with September and November 2023

In the scenario of candidates tested including in September and November 2023, if next Sunday they were called to vote for the new president of Romania, out of the 78.3% of Romanians who have a voting option, 26.5% would choose Mircea Geoana, independent candidate, (25.3% in September and 26.2% in November 2023), 18.9% would put their stamp on Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) (19.5% in September and 20.8% in November 2023) and 14% on Diana Şoşoacă (SOS Romania) (10.1% in September and 14.4% in November 2023). In the ranking follows George Simion (AUR) with 13.3% (18.7% in September and 14% in November 2023), Nicolae Ciucă (PNL) with 11.4% (11.2% in September and 12.1% in November 2023), Cătălin Drula (from the United Right Alliance) with 5.9% (5.6% in September and 4.2% in November 2023), Dacian Cioloş (REPER) with 5.1% (4.1 % in September and 3.9% in November 2023) and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) with 3.6% (2.7% in September and 2.4% in November 2023). 1.3% of Romanians would choose another candidate (2.8% in September and 1.9% in November 2023).

Download the graphic presentation:  ENG_31.01.24 INSCOP Survey -News.ro Part 3 Presidential elections