Part VI: After 10 years: Romanians’ attitudes towards other countries. Comparison 2013-2023

Methodology:

• The INSCOP Research opinion poll was commissioned by News.ro
• The data was collected between 23 October – 2 November 2023
• Research method: sociological survey through questionnaire, CATI (telephone interviews)
• The sample, which comprised 1,100 people, is representative according to significant socio-demographic categories (sex, age, occupation) for the adult population of Romania (aged 18 and over 18).
• The maximum error of the data is ± 3%, at a confidence level of 95%.

Remus Ștefureac – INSCOP Research: “Spain and Italy, the Western countries that host the largest communities of Romanians, dominate the ranking of positive feelings towards other countries. The most interesting picture is provided by the comparison with the ranking from 10 years ago (2013) – when INSCOP Research asked a similar question within the Barometer the Truth about Romania. On the one hand, we notice a significant decline in the case of Russia, as the share of positive feelings towards this country halved in 2023 compared to in 2013, dropping from nearly 37% a decade ago to 18%. These data correlate with the decline in trust in Russia (the indicator “much and very much trust” has collapsed in the case of Russia from about 18% to about 8% currently). The obvious explanation for this sharp decline is the war Russia has initiated against Ukraine. On the other hand, compared to 2013, in 2023 we notice an increase in the share of positive feelings towards most Western European countries and the Republic of Moldova.”

Sympathy for countries. After 10 years: Comparison 2013-2023

Spain and Italy are the countries for which Romanians have the greatest sympathy. Thus, 82.8% of respondents have predominantly positive feelings for Spain (compared to 72.9% in 2013) and 81.4% for Italy (compared to 70.5% in 2013).

Germany follows with 77.6% predominantly positive feelings (compared to 74.3% in 2013), France with 75.4% (compared to 73% in 2013) and Great Britain with 75.4% (compared to 75.5% in 2013). 69.2% of the survey participants declare that they have predominantly positive feelings for the Republic of Moldova (compared to 65.7% in 2013), and 67.5% for the USA (compared to 70.3% in 2013).

Ukraine enjoys predominantly positive feelings from 43.3% of Romanians (compared to 41.8% in 2013), and Hungary from 39.7% (compared to 29.3% in 2013). The ranking is completed by China with 36.3% predominantly positive feelings (compared to 56.5% in 2013) and Russia with 18.3% (compared to 36.8% in 2013).

Download the graphic presentation: 11.2023 INSCOP-News.ro – Attitudes towards other countries

Part II, III & IV: Voting intentions for parliamentary & presidential elections. Trust and name recognition of public figures

Methodology:

• The INSCOP Research opinion poll was commissioned by News.ro
• The data was collected between 20 – 27 November 2023
• Research method: sociological survey through questionnaire, CATI (telephone interviews)
• The sample, which comprised 1,100 people, is representative according to significant socio-demographic categories (sex, age, occupation) for the adult population of Romania (aged 18 and over 18).
• The maximum error of the data is ± 2.95 %, at a confidence level of 95%.

Romania’s direction

25.1% of Romanians believe that Romania is heading in the right direction, while 66.7% are pessimistic about the country’s future. 8.2% of the total sample do not know or do not answer this question.

Parliamentary elections

Estimated participation in parliamentary elections

On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means ‘surely I will not vote’, and 10 means ‘surely I will vote’, 20.5% of Romanians chose 1, 2.5% chose 2, 2% chose 3, 0.9% chose 4, 7.4% chose 5, 1.9% chose 6, 4.6% chose 7. 6.7% indicated 8, 4.5% – 9, and 48% – 10. 1.1% represents the percentage of non-responses.

Voting intentions for parliamentary elections

Of those who expressed their preference for a party from the list, regardless of whether they declare that they will vote for sure or not (65.2% of the total sample), 30.2% would vote with PSD, 20.1% with PNL, and 19.5% with AUR. 11.9% of Romanians would vote for USR, while SOS would get 5.2% of the voting options. 4.9% of those who expressed a voting option would vote for UDMR, and 2% for Pro Romania. 1.9% express their voting option for the Green Party, 1.3% for PMP, 0.7% for PUSL, 0.6% for The Force of the Right and 0.3% for REPER. 1.3% of respondents express their preference for another party.

TRUST and NAME RECOGNITION of Public Figures

Remus Stefureac – INSCOP Research Director: “The trust ranking is dominated by holders of important positions on the international bodies: NATO Deputy Secretary-General Mircea Geoană, and European Chief Prosecutor Laura Codruța Kovesi. The podium is completed by the mayor of Cluj, Emil Boc. The data draws attention by two elements. The first is that the top three ranked names are not active players in national politics but excel in their fields of activity. The second is the level of trust above expectations in Diana Șoșoacă, indicating that significant segments of the population resonate with ultra-radical messages, a true litmus test of a state of profound social dissatisfaction.

Name recognition

Klaus Iohannis is the politician with the highest recognition among the tested names, with 100% of respondents declaring that they have heard of him. The head of state is followed by Gabriela Firea with a recognition of 94.6%, Diana Șoșoacă with 93.8%, Emil Boc with 93.7%, Mircea Geoană with 92.2%, and Marcel Ciolacu with 92%. 86.5% of those interviewed say they have heard of former DNA chief Laura Codruța Kovesi, 83.8% of Liberal leader Nicolae Ciucă, and 81.4% of AUR leader George Simion. USR leader Cătălin Drulă has a recognition of 41.6%, while Ilie Bolojan has 34.3%

Trust

Mircea Geoană leads the trust ranking with 36.3% much and very much trust. The Deputy Secretary General of NATO is followed by Laura Codruța Kovesi with 34.3% much and very much trust and Emil Boc with 32.4%. The ranking is continued by Marcel Ciolacu with a trust level of 25.3%, Diana Șoșoacă with 22.7%, Gabriela Firea with 21.4% and George Simion with 20.7%. 19.1% of those interviewed trust much and very much Nicolae Ciucă, and 16.2% Klaus Iohannis. Ilie Bolojan has a trust level of 12.9%, and Cătălin Drula 6.7%.

Presidential elections

Remus Stefureac – INSCOP Research Director: “INSCOP Research has tested two voting scenarios for the presidential elections: one that includes only the leaders of the main political parties as potential candidates and another that includes Mircea Geoană as an independent candidate alongside political leaders. As we approach the moment of the presidential elections and the number of potential candidates will increase, the list of names tested in these sociological surveys will change accordingly. Compared to September, we observe slight increases in the voting intentions for Mircea Geoană, Marcel Ciolacu, and Nicolae Ciucă, but also a higher increase in the case of Diana Șoșoacă – a trend that correlates with a decrease in the voting intentions for George Simion. Essentially, as with the vote for political parties, we observe that Diana Șoșoacă and George Simion compete for the same segment of voters, meaning that an increase in one automatically results in a decrease in the voting intentions for the other.”

Estimated participation in presidential elections

On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means ‘surely I will not vote’, and 10 means ‘surely I will vote’, 13% of Romanians chose 1, 1.7% chose 2, 1.6% chose 3, 1.2% chose 4, 6.2% chose 5, 2.1% chose 6, 2.9% chose 7. 7% indicated 8, 6% – 9 and 57.6% – 10. 0.7% represents the share of non-responses.

Voting intentions for presidential elections (1st Scenario)

In the first scenario, which repeats the measurement from September, the list included the following potential candidates: Mircea Geoană (independent), Marcel Ciolacu (PSD), Diana Șoșoacă (SOS Romania), George Simion (AUR), Nicolae Ciucă (PNL), Cătălin Drulă (USR), Dacian Ciolos (REPER), and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR).

Of those who expressed a preference for a candidate on the list, regardless of whether they declare that they will vote for sure or not (83.1% of the total sample), 26.2% would vote for Mircea Geoană (independent) (compared to 25.3% in September 2023), 20.8% for Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) (19.5% in September 2023), 14.4% for Diana Șoșoacă (SOS) (10.1% in September 2023), and 14% for George Simion (AUR) (18.7% in September 2023). 12.1% of voters would opt for Nicolae Ciucă (11.2% in September 2023), and 4.2% for Cătălin Drulă (USR) (5.6% in September 2023). Dacian Cioloș (REPER) would be chosen by 3.9% of voters ( 4.1% in September 2023), while Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) by 2.4% (2.7% in September 2023). 1.9% say they would vote for another candidate (2.8% in September 2023).

Voting intentions for presidential elections (2nd Scenario)

In the second scenario, the list included the following potential candidates: Marcel Ciolacu (PSD), Diana Șoșoacă (SOS Romania), George Simion (AUR), Nicolae Ciucă (PNL), Cătălin Drulă (USR), Dacian Ciolos (REPER), and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR).

Of those who expressed their preference for a candidate from the list, regardless of whether they declare that they will vote for sure or not (76.4% of the total sample), 27.4% would vote for Marcel Ciolacu (PSD), 19.1% for Diana Soșoacă (SOS) and 18% for George Simion (AUR). 14.1% of voters would opt for Nicolae Ciucă, and 7.1% for Cătălin Drula (USR). Dacian Cioloș (REPER) would be elected by 6.7% of voters, and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) by 2.7%. 4.9% say they would vote for another candidate.

Download the graphic presentation: 12.2023 INSCOP Survey – News.ro Voting intentions for parliamentary & presidential elections

According to the INSCOP survey conducted between March 1 and 17  2023, commissioned by the New Strategy Center More, more than three-quarters of Romanians would not agree with the exit of our country from the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance.

Remus Stefureac (INSCOP Research, STRATEGIC Thinking Group): “The alarmist debates regarding the collapse of Romanians’ trust in the EU must be nuanced because they do not reflect the reality of public perception and can represent fuel for various entities with anti-European and false patriotic discourse. Romanians’ trust in the EU has not collapsed! It rises and falls periodically depending on various topics on the agenda, but we cannot talk about a collapse. Moreover, since more than 3 quarters of Romanians do not want Romania to leave the EU and 80% do not want Romania to leave NATO, things are becoming very clear. Our EU and NATO membership is one of the greatest historical gains for the entire Romanian nation that was formed facing the West. Our identity DNA was built precisely on this membership of the West and even if geography has often played tricks on us, we survived here in a strong island of Latinity, with a Romance language and a truly European culture”.

The country’s exit from EU

76.8% of respondents believe that Romania should not leave the European Union. 19.7% would agree with the country’s exit from the European bloc. 3.5% of the survey participants do not know or do not answer this question.

The country’s exit from NATO

80% of the respondents believe that Romania should not leave NATO, while 16.1% share the opposite opinion, and 3.9% do not know or do not answer.

Methodology

The opinion poll was conducted by INSCOP Research at the request of the New Strategy Center. The data was collected between March 1 and 17 through the CATI method (telephone interviews). The sample, which comprised 1,103 people, is representative according to significant socio-demographic categories (sex, age, occupation) for the adult population of Romania. The maximum error of the data is ± 3.0 %, at a confidence level of 95%.

Download the graphic presentation: 6.04.23 ENG Exit NATO-UE INSCOP