For more details: https://www.agerpres.ro/english/2020/06/24/energy-minister-accuses-gas-suppliers-of-abusing-dominant-position-being-arrogant-on-eve-of-market-deregulation–528947[:]

For more details: http://www.energynomics.ro/en/energy-security-barometer-21-5-of-romanians-say-they-are-vulnerable-consumers/[:]

For more details: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-24/offshore-drilling-is-a-hit-but-romanian-leaders-are-bungling-it[:]

For more details: https://www.romaniajournal.ro/society-people/the-revival-after-the-crisis-the-great-opportunities-for-european-and-national-reconstruction/[:]

80.7% of the respondents agree that Romania’s EU membership can help us fight the coronavirus epidemic. 13.4% disagree, while 6% do not know or do not respond. Asked if the state should take special measures to encourage Romanians that are working abroad and that are returning home in the context of the coronavirus epidemic to remain in the country, 81.7% of the respondents answered yes and 14.3% no. 4% represents the percentage of non-responses. You can consult more data from this sociological study HERE…[:]

The Romanian language version of this article was published by G4media

Executive summary

• The worst crisis of our generation will also activate a series of opportunities.
• After the crisis, we can find ways to reconcile the federalist views that demand a stronger role of the EU and the partisans of the national states that risk being “seduced” one by one by the expansionist actors who do not share the essential values of our civilization and identity.
• Every safety mask, every emergency lung ventilator, every essential consumer goods that reach the people through the help of the European Union will mean as many blank cheques granted by the citizens of the Member States to the reinforced European project.
• The European citizen will send the extremist forces to irrelevance and will support the strengthened European project if the EU, in agreement with the Member States, will have the vision, the political will, and the administrative capacity to implement a genuine European “Marshall Plan” financed by European money, for the prosperity of the whole Europe, without privileged areas (relocation of production facilities within the Union, a single-speed Europe, infrastructure development, the stimulation of education and innovation, all in a strategy that goes beyond the center-periphery reflex – a source of so much frustration and conflict).
• Romania needs a profound reform of the political system (the renewal of the political class, the reform of the administration, the amendment of the Constitution), major actions of economic transformation to increase the local participation in the development model, and consistent political support for strengthening the European Union.

The global health crisis caused by the COVID 19 virus is unprecedented if we think that we have never been, not even in times of war, in a situation of total freeze of economic activity, in most fields, in most countries of the world at the same time.

Like any major crisis, the coronavirus pandemic will have an end. After such a crisis, there will be winners, and there will be losers. However, this time, the status of the winner or loser will not be attributed immediately. Still, rather it will depend on the path the states, supranational organizations, or large corporations will follow after the crisis. Undoubtedly, beyond the destructions, beyond the casualties, the worst crisis of our generation will activate a series of opportunities because only a crisis of such magnitude has the strength to level asperities, to go beyond artificial blockages and to cause those disruptive decisions that can transform societies and individual lives.

As far as we are concerned, the coronavirus pandemic has caught us in a relatively stable situation. We are a member state of the European Union and, therefore, we have access to the entire organizational, financing and support infrastructure of a supranational structure that, although it initially responded slowly, has begun to act. However, neither the European construction nor the national states can boast exceptional performances in managing this crisis. It is a fact that we must accept with realism. It is the only valid attitude that can help us to approach with pragmatism the issue of European and national reconstruction after this crisis.

I have joined both terms – European and national – despite the temptation to place the European supranational construction in antithesis with the national foundations. I believe that, after this crisis, we can find ways to reconcile the federalist views that demand a stronger involvement of the EU in defending the European community from the economic, political or military expansion of other actors and those views partisan to the national states – that risk being “seduced” and quickly swallowed one by one by the same expansionist actors who do not share the essential values of our civilization and identity.

The European Union was born after a war that ravaged the continent, and it managed to maintain peace for over 70 years. The same European Union now has a great chance to be reborn, after a black decade marked by the rise of extremist forces (in many western states), authoritarian slippages (Hungary), the rupture caused by Brexit and the North-South / East-West divisions on the most diverse topics. The main condition for regenerating the European project lies in the ability of the Union and its Member States to make and implement the necessary tactical and strategic decisions to combat in solidarity the health and economic crisis.

The European citizen will be quickly born if, at the end of this health crisis, the European Union will be perceived as having put effort to directly and concretely contribute to the fight against the epidemic. Every safety mask, every emergency lung ventilator, every essential consumer goods that reach the people through the help of the European Union will mean as many blank cheques granted by the citizens of the Member States to the reinforced European project. In Romania, at least, expectations are very high, as revealed by the latest INSCOP Research opinion poll that shows that over 80% of Romanians believe that the EU membership can help us fight the epidemic.

Equally important will be the measures to overcome the economic crisis. The Union has already announced it will allocate significant amounts of which a part, over one billion euros, will go to Romania to support the healthcare system and affected small and medium-sized enterprises. But obviously, it is not enough. When we talk about strategic measures to overcome the economic crisis, we need to think on a large scale, to elaborate a project of relocation of production, consumption, and innovation models. The same European citizen will send the extremist forces that haunt the continent to irrelevance and will support the strengthened European project if the EU, in agreement with the Member States, will have the vision, the political will, and the administrative capacity to implement a genuine European “Marshall Plan” financed by European money, for the prosperity of Europe as a whole.

The most important levers of reconciliation between the federalist and the national visions faced by the European continent can be found in the details of this European “Marshall Plan”:

1. If it wants to remain relevant in this century, Europe as a whole and European states, in particular, will have to stimulate the relocation of production facilities across the Union. It is a project that can last up to a decade, but it must be started in force and immediately. The US has already initiated the process and is expected to amplify its efforts in this sense. The EU cannot blindly support a failed model of globalization, and it must be at the forefront of this transformation, in a more balanced formula to avoid the monopolization of production in a single geographical area. The relocation of production facilities must be carried out in such a manner that all Member States take advantage of the reindustrialization process. In this way, the Union will send, on the one hand, a strong political message. In essence, each member counts, and the economy of each country is helped, and, on the other hand, it will ensure a structured and balanced development of the continent, fully exploiting its immense demographic potential of over 500 million people.
2. A European “Marshall Plan” cannot ignore the issue of multi-speed Europe. Such a concept will always fuel either national frustrations or secessionist tendencies. Europe can function as a block only at a single speed whose intensity changes simultaneously. The Schengen Area that unfairly excludes some Eastern states, just because other Western are inventing pretexts to defend selfish economic interests or to satisfy local extremist reflexes, should include all Member States. For this objective to be achieved, some Western states will have to abandon unnecessary reflexes of superiority, and others will have to look deeper into their own shortcomings often caused by underperforming public systems, lack of integrity, and a political class impaired by systemic incompetence.
3. Also, a European “Marshall Plan” must aim to strengthen the European infrastructure of any kind, be it transport, sanitary, energy, ecological, or modern communications. The highways lacking in many Eastern European countries must be built in the next decade. Of course, we often blame the incompetent national administrations. Still, we cannot overlook the strange cockroach, abruptly invoked by anonymous European officials as a pretext for blocking a large European transport corridor linking Constanta seaport to Western Europe (Pitești – Sibiu highway).
4. Finally, a European “Marshall Plan” for the 21st century cannot ignore the continent’s intellectual and creative potential. Europe still has the most educated population, this type of intellectual capital being decisive for the innovation and technological production of EU states. We must protect and stimulate production by relocating high-tech industrial production to the continent, as well as by the distribution of facilities throughout the Union, in all Member States. Therefore, education should become a truly strategic field within the EU; an objective promoted including through treaties, through a curriculum more correlated to the concrete needs of this century’s economy, and through mandatory minimum budgetary quotas for financing the education systems for all Member States.

Regarding the national action, that of Romania in particular, I would like to make some observations related to the need for political and economic reforms. From a political point of view, Romanians have strong pro-European attitudes, so the risk of extremist-authoritarian deviations fueled by other anti-Western power centers are low at the moment. Therefore, political reform must firstly include a profound renewal of the political class. It is the responsibility of the political parties, big and small, to come with new candidates, more competent, more dynamic, and more righteous. And it has to act on a relatively short term, until the next local parliamentary elections. Otherwise, the risk of being swept away by the more and more frustrated population increases exponentially.

Right now, we have a President elected with a strong popular vote. Therefore, the President has the legitimacy to push for these transformations that imply a series of structural reforms such as the reform of the administration and the amendment of the Constitution – so necessary to clarify the type of political regime and not only.

Starting from 2024, when the presidential and parliamentary elections will be organized in the same year, Romania should return to mandates with the same duration for the President and the Parliament. We cannot rebuild in Romania under the permanent threat of political crises caused by having a president of one political color and a parliamentary majority of another color.  We still do not have the maturity nor the institutional capacity to deal with public affairs during cohabitation periods, such as other countries do, like the US, for example.

Also, the political establishment must quickly reconfirm both the attachment to the European project and Romania’s vision on strengthening the EU in the next decade and on the Union’s economic recovery plan.

From an economic point of view, Romania needs to reinvent itself. Locating on the territory of the country as many production facilities as possible, from all fields, supported by Romanian or foreign capital, must be the zero priority of the next decade for all governments, regardless of their political color.

Redefining the role of the state in the economy can no longer be a taboo topic because we cannot run desperately to the state when the first serious crisis occurs, such as this epidemic, but to deprive it of resources during “peacetime,” invoking ultra-liberal recipes. Obviously, we cannot move towards extreme statism because no one wants to go from bad to worse. We’ll have to act pragmatically, not ideologically, when we fix our economy. The state must reduce the waste of public funds and allocate resources for public investments in infrastructure, agriculture, energy, research, education, health, in protecting the environment. These areas increase our resilience in the face of a crisis and bring added value to the economy. Also, the state must adopt smart regulations to stimulate private investments in a time when private money will become increasingly scarce. The exploitation of the Black Sea gas is an example, but not the only one. Within this project and others, the role of the state must be rethought by involving those solid companies where the state is the majority shareholder. In turn, these companies must be strengthened by promoting efficient management, not a politicized one. Such public investments or the support of large private investment projects are massively supported by the population, as shown by recent opinion polls published by INSCOP Research (here).

Last but not least, the current challenge caused by the return to the country of a large number of Romanians working in various European states could be turned into a great opportunity if we will have the capacity to relaunch the economy – strongly affected, before the epidemic, by the lack of labor force – and reintegrate them into the Romanian labor market. Except for some specific cases that have easily become subject of negative news, the vast majority of Romanians returning from other European countries these weeks are honest, trained people who have worked in efficient economic systems, and who can contribute substantially to the recovery of the national economy. Besides, their return in the country is well received by Romanians, as shown by opinion polls. More precisely, the population wants the state to take specific measures to encourage them to remain in the country after the end of the epidemic.  Such measures would be a minimum compensation for hundreds of thousands of Romanian families torn apart by the largest emigration phenomenon that affected a European country in times of peace.

All the political and economic transformations, as well as Romania’s need to be an active contributor to the process of the EU rebirth, require a new Snagov moment, a trans-party agreement to support some major strategic lines of action. Regardless of the political camps, the country needs stable governance, more competence, and functionality in the administrative apparatus, coherent economic policies to stimulate production capacities and an active pro-European orientation focused on the objective of transforming and strengthening the European Union to the equal benefit of all its citizens in all Member States. It is unrealistic to expect and even wish for a unanimous national agreement.  It would be a false, unconvincing and pointless spectacle. The democratic political competition must continue so that we can choose between different solutions. However, some strategic guidelines should be followed by all political forces, through a valid general agreement, as such guidelines give real meaning to our national and European interest.[:]

For more details: https://www.romaniajournal.ro/business/inscop-survey-romanians-expect-the-state-to-help-private-companies-affected-by-the-coronavirus-epidemic/

Part II: Supporting private companies financially affected by coronavirus epidemic, encouraging private and public investments, EU membership in the context of the epidemic, the role of Romanian institutions and international financial organizations, the attitude towards Romanians from the diaspora returning home

The vast majority of Romanians believe the state should help, through special measures, the private companies financially affected by the coronavirus epidemic and that the EU membership can help Romania overcome this difficult period. Here are some of the conclusions of the latest INSCOP Research survey conducted in partnership with Verifield, at the request of CAPITAL magazine, between 20 and 24^th of March 2020.

How should the state help private companies (employers) financially affected by the coronavirus epidemic

89.9% of the total respondents agree that the state should take special measures to help private companies whose economic activity has been affected by the coronavirus epidemic. 7.3% of those interviewed disagree with this measure, while 2.8% do not know or do not answer.

Asked to choose two main measures that the state should take to support companies/employers financially affected by the coronavirus epidemic, 33% of the respondents indicated loans with low-interest rates guaranteed by the state, 30.3% encouraging banks to defer interest on loans for some time and 31.6% a temporary amendment of the Labor Code to facilitate remote work. 28.9% of the respondents indicated the deferral of payment of social contributions, 22.2% the state aids and 21.3% the payment of state’s debts to private companies (VAT refunds, arrears for finished works and services). 1.1% of the respondents indicated other measures. 0.8% choose “none of the measures indicated”. 5.8% represents the percentage of non-responses.

A share of 43.5% of Romanians believes that the state should help all private companies affected by the coronavirus epidemic, regardless of whether or not they paid their contributions before the crisis. 52.5% of respondents believe that the state should help only those private companies affected by the coronavirus epidemic that, before the crisis, have paid all their contributions on time. 4% do not know or do not answer.

36.5% of Romanians believe that the state should help all private companies in all sectors of the economy, regardless of how much their activity has been affected by the coronavirus epidemic. The state should only help private companies from the sectors most affected by the coronavirus epidemic, according to 60.2% of the respondents. 3.3% do not know or do not answer.

87.6% of Romanians consider that in the next period, the state should encourage by concrete measures the major private investment projects in the Romanian economy. 6.8% disagree with such an idea, while 5.6% do not know or do not answer.

The idea that the state should initiate major investment projects financed from public funds meets the agreement of 71.4% of Romanians, while 22.7% express their disagreement. 6% is the percentage of non-answers.

Remus Ștefureac, CEO of INSCOP Research: “90% of Romanians agree with the statement that the state should take special measures to help private companies whose economic activity has been affected by the coronavirus epidemic.

Romanians manifest a rational attitude towards the use of state aids. Thus, over 50% of the respondents think that the state should help only those private companies affected by the coronavirus epidemic that, before the crisis, have paid all their contributions on time. An even larger majority (60%) support the idea that the state should only assist private companies from the sectors most affected by the coronavirus epidemic. Such an approach would have the advantage that, given the limited budget, the resources could be directed to the functional companies and those most affected by the epidemic.

However, a much stronger majority (almost 90%) supports the idea that in the next period, the state should encourage through concrete measures major private investment projects in the Romanian economy. Also, over 70% support the idea that in the coming period, the state should initiate large investment projects financed from public funds. The exit from the crisis and especially the economic recovery can only be achieved through investments. The Romanian state will have to play an essential role, either directly, through public investments, or through smart regulations that encourage private investment and public-private partnerships (for example, the involvement of the state-owned company Romgaz in the Black Sea gas exploitation project).

A crisis of such magnitude is unprecedented, and a triple responsibility from the state, private companies, and citizens are required to overcome it. The burden of helping employees must be shared between the state and the private sector, at least by those companies that have a good financial situation. In such a crisis, there is no room for selfishness on the part of the companies and nor for hesitations from the state. After all, companies that will make every effort to keep their employees will be the first to recover. And the state has every interest in protecting the taxpayers who pay the contributions to the public budget, much needed in the upcoming months.”

EU membership in the context of the coronavirus epidemic

80.7% of the respondents agree that Romania’s EU membership can help us fight the coronavirus epidemic. 13.4% disagree, while 6% do not know or do not respond.

Romania’s EU membership can help us overcome the economic difficulties caused by the coronavirus epidemic in the opinion of 72.6% of Romanians. 18.8% of respondents believe the contrary, while the percentage of non-answers is 8.5%.

Remus Ștefureac, CEO of INSCOP Research: “Despite the initial slow mobilization of the European Union, the vast majority of Romanians agree with the idea that Romania’s EU membership can help us both to fight the coronavirus epidemic (the health crisis) and economic difficulties caused by the outbreak (the economic crisis). Although according to the treaties, health policies are the responsibility of the Member States, not the Union’s, exceptional measures have already been announced by the EU for helping states to manage the health crisis and to limit the economic consequences. It is obvious that in such a crisis, it is infinitely more advantageous to be a part of the Union than outside the European project. And the upcoming months will prove this, given the substantial measures, worth billions of euros, taken by the EU cannot be compared with the isolated PR moves of certain states. And the fact that the population understands this shows the resilience of most Romanians who are constantly showing favorable attitudes towards the European Union. ”

 Loans from the World Bank or IMF

64% of the respondents consider that if the situation of the Romanian economy will worsen in the next six months, Romania should apply for a loan from the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank. 23.4% oppose such an idea, while 12.5% do not know or do not respond.

Remus Ștefureac, CEO of INSCOP Research: “All the surveys conducted in the last years by INSCOP Research and not only showed that the IMF is not a popular financial institution in Romania, mainly because of its association with austerity policies. However, asked if Romania should apply for a loan from the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank, if the economic situation will worsen in the next six months, over 60% of Romanians respond affirmatively. This kind of answer reinforces the previous conclusions regarding Romanians’ deep fears in the face of possible serious economic consequences of the coronavirus epidemic. ”

What institutions can help reduce the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on the economy?

In the opinion of the Romanians, the institution or organization that can contribute the most to reduce the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on the economy is the Government, with 69.4%. Next in the top is the National Bank of Romania with 65.5% and the Parliament with 61.7%. In the fourth place, we find the international financial institutions (IMF, World Bank, European Investment Bank, etc.) with 59.4%, followed by the President with 57%, and the commercial banks with 55.5%. The ranking is concluded by the employers’ associations/business associations with 47.2%, Romania’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry with 46.7%, and trade unions with 38.3%.

Remus Ștefureac, CEO of INSCOP Research: “The Romanians have expectations from many institutions/organizations to take measures to reduce the economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic. In the case of six of the nine institutions tested in the survey, more than half of the population considers that they can contribute to a great extent to reduce the economic impact of the epidemic. These are in order: the Government, the National Bank of Romania, the Parliament, the international financial institutions, the President of Romania and the commercial banks. Almost half of the Romanians have high expectations regarding the role of the employers’ associations and Romania’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry. These answers show that, ultimately, the economic solutions will not be provided by a single entity. The solutions must be the result of a deep dialogue between all the parties that have the attributions, expertise and legitimate interests to contribute to the recovery of the economy. ”

The attitude towards Romanians from the diaspora returning home amid the coronavirus outbreak

Asked if the state should take special measures to encourage Romanians that are working abroad and that are returning home in the context of the coronavirus epidemic to remain in the country, 81.7% of the respondents answered yes and 14.3% no. 4% represents the percentage of non-responses.

49.3% of the respondents consider that, if they do not have health insurance, the citizens from the diaspora who return to the country and are diagnosed with coronavirus should pay for the medical services in Romania. 46.5% think otherwise, and 4.2% do not know or do not answer the question.

The return of a part of the Romanians working abroad is a good thing in the view of 68.9% of the total respondents, because, amid the labor crisis, if they are to remain to work in Romania, they could help to revive the economy. 24.8% of Romanians believe that the return of a part of Romanians working abroad is a bad thing because it could deepen economic problems expected to emerge after the end of the coronavirus epidemic. 6.3% do not know or do not answer.

Remus Ștefureac, CEO of INSCOP Research: “Beyond the current crisis, the trauma caused by the massive emigration of Romanians in the last decade strongly influences the Romanians’ opinions given that the vast majority believe that the state should encourage, by special measures, the Romanians that are returning home from abroad to remain permanently in Romania. Thus, the most serious health crisis of our generation could create an important opportunity for the Romanian economy and society by regaining a significant part of its human capital.

The payment of health insurance by Romanians from the diaspora infected with coronavirus is a topic that divides society. Almost half of the Romanians believe that the citizens from the diaspora who return to the country and are diagnosed with coronavirus should pay for the medical services in Romania if they do not have health insurance. The rest have a contrary opinion. The urgency of the medical situation of Romanians from the diaspora infected with coronavirus largely explains the position of those who believe that the infected citizens should not pay for the health care services. However, under normal circumstances, public systems cannot function efficiently if they do not have financing, more precisely if the beneficiaries do not pay for the provided public services.

On the other hand, a larger majority, little over two-thirds of the population, appreciate the long-term benefits of the return of Romanians from abroad. This phenomenon is perceived as a good thing because Romanians from the diaspora could help to revive the economy if they are to remain to work in Romania.

The INSCOP Research survey was conducted between 20 and 24^th of March, 2020, in partnership with Verifield, at the request of CAPITAL magazine. The data was collected using CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing). The volume of the sample was 800 persons, and it is representative for the non-institutionalized population of Romania, aged 18 and over. The maximum permissible error of the data is ±3.5%, at a confidence level of 95%.

Download the graphical presentation: ENG_26.03.20 INSCOP Report economic impact of COVID-19 Part II[:]

Pentru mai multe detalii: https://www.romaniajournal.ro/business/inscop-survey-on-coronavirus-romanians-believe-the-govt-must-support-the-economy-labour-market/[:]

Part I

The overwhelming majority of Romanians supports the measures taken by the authorities to limit the spread of the new virus and to counter its negative effects on the economy, according to the latest INSCOP Research survey conducted in partnership with Verifield, at the request of CAPITAL magazine, between 20 and 24^th of March 2020.

Perceived personal risk of infection

Asked to assess how high their risk of getting infected with the coronavirus is, 23% of respondents said they are at high risk, 28.4% at moderate risk, 24.6% at low risk and 18.9% that they have no risk of getting infected. 5.1% represents the percentage of non-responses.

The approval of the state of emergency

94.1% of Romanians agree with the state of emergency being declared in Romania to limit the coronavirus epidemic. Only 5.1% disagree, while 0.9% do not know or do not answer.

How the population thinks the coronavirus epidemic will affect the economy

Asked if the Romanian economy will be affected by the coronavirus epidemic, 91% of Romanians answered yes, 5.2% no. 3.9% represents the percentage of non-responses.

How should the state help the citizens (employees) financially affected by the coronavirus epidemic

97.1% of the total respondents agree that the state should take special measures to help the citizens financially affected by the coronavirus epidemic. 1.5% disagree, while the non-response rate is 1.4%.

Asked which should be the two main measures that the government should take to support the citizens/ employees financially affected by the coronavirus epidemic, 44.3% of the respondents indicated the deferral of installment payments for bank loans, 43.8% the state paying a percentage of wages provided that the private employer does not resort to layoffs, and 25.5% state paid leave. Tax cuts were chosen by 25% of the total respondents and tax exemptions by 21.7%.  21.5% believe that the state should partially cover the cost of utility bills for those fired due to the coronavirus outbreak. 1% indicated other measures. 0.5% chose the option “none of the measures indicated”. 2.1% represents the percentage of non-responses.

The survey was conducted between 20 and 24^th of March, 2020 by INSCOP Research in partnership with Verifield, at the request of CAPITAL magazine. The data was collected using CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing). The sample included 800 persons, and it is representative for the non-institutionalized population of Romania, aged 18 and over. The maximum permissible error of the data is ±3.5%, at a confidence level of 95%.

Download the graphical presentation: ENG_25.03.20 INSCOP Report economic impact of COVID-19 Part I[:]